We have spoken with subscribers and reassessed the Real Asset Chartbook; many people have commented that it is a fire hose of information, rather than a succinct delivery of a few key points in the world of liquid real assets. As such, we will pivot slightly to see if the product, delivered differently, is more appealing. The PDF Chart Book, which contains all the information we use at Massif Capital on a day-to-day basis, is still available at the bottom.
This Week's Key Takeaways
Volatility suggests markets are not concerned about…anything.
Crude has a down month.
Industrials have had a great 8 months, will it continue?
Renewable investment growth continues, everywhere but the US.
The market has pre-priced in cuts; will it subdue the economic impact?
Volatility Shrugs at Policy Noise
Volatility has remained strikingly subdued even as policy-uncertainty gauges stayed elevated, suggesting markets have decoupled from headline risk in recent weeks. This resilience implies liquidity, earnings, and positioning may be dominating macro narratives in setting risk premia for cyclicals and commodity-linked equities.
Why equity investors should care: Low realized volatility can compress risk premia and support multiples for industrials, materials, and energy until a shock re-couples vol with policy risk; watch for regime shifts that could quickly widen spreads and reset risk budgets
Relevant Chartbook Pages: 42, 43, 44
Crude Reality: First Monthly Drop Since April
Oil ended August lower, WTI fell about 7% to $64 and Brent slid toward $68—as a projected supply surplus and softer growth overshadowed geopolitics, breaking the upswing since April.
Bearish sentiment deepened as the IEA flagged a record surplus colliding with OPEC+ capacity restoration, shaping a well-supplied market into year‑end, while the U.S. moved toward tighter measures on buyers of Russian crude that could redirect flows even as demand worries cap rallies.
Why equity investors should care: Softer crude pressures E&P cash flow and services pricing while refining and petrochemicals could see increased margin dispersion as strong operators out perform. A supply-heavy setup favors refiners and select petrochemicals over high-cost E&Ps, and raises execution risk for capex-heavy offshore projects
Relevant tickers: Any Oil and Gas E&P
Relevant Chartbook Pages: 22, 26, 27, 29, 33, 36, 37, 56, 69,
Industrials Have Been Winners, Could Be Changing
From the April 8 trough following tariff headlines, the S&P 500 is up 29% while an index of North America Large-Cap Industrials gained 37% and a broader industrial index rose 39%, led by electrical equipment up 65%.
The large-cap multis and industrials cohort trades at ~25x forward P/E, an 18% premium to the S&P 500 and wider than a year ago, while the broader industrial sector sits at ~21.7x, a 1% premium versus a typical historical discount.
A GoldmanSach cyclicals versus defensives ex-commodities index is at a record since its 2007 inception despite chipmaker weakness and industrial tariff concerns. Profit-taking seems warrented and may prompt a rotation. Caterpillar’s warning of a larger-than-expected tariff hit challenged assumptions about industrials’ pricing power, adding strain to a market already questioning AI-linked demand durability. The story is a little different when you include commodity producers in the index, suggesting that sector of the market remains beaten down despite recent outperformance.
Why equity investors should care: A rotation toward defensives would narrow breadth and raises the hurdle for cyclicals rerating; the elevated P/E levels also reduce margin for error into year-end prints. Reassessing exposure to high-beta industrials and electrical equipment makes sense at this point. In many regards, US industrial beta has been a good trade this year, but stock picking might do better into the year end.
Relevant tickers: GEV, JCI, MMM, FAST, PH, MWA, SPC, GNRC, ROK, EMR, LII, CAT
Relevant Chartbook Pages: 20, 78, 79
Renewable Investment Continues, Despite US Dip
Global solar investment reached $252 billion in 1H 2025, but utility-scale asset financing fell 22% amid curtailment and price-cannibalization concerns in China, Spain, Greece, and Brazil, while small-scale solar grew on policy agility and corporate demand. Wind investment hit $126 billion—half solar’s pace—with offshore wind financing at $39 billion surpassing the full 2024 total and onshore flat overall but stronger in Europe.
US renewables investment fell by $20.5 billion (36%) versus 2H 2024 after a year-end rush to lock tax credits and a subsequent policy chill in 1H 2025, while China’s 2H 2024 spike reflected draft plans for competitive power markets. By contrast, EU renewables investment rose nearly $30 billion in 1H 2025 versus 2H 2024, up 63%, led by both onshore and offshore wind momentum.
Why equity investors should care: Solar continues to look beaten down, and Western Wind OEMs look troubled. Still hard to figure out if now is the time to go dumpster diving in US renewables.
Relevant tickers: NEE, ORA, FSLR, ENPH, RUN, VWS, SHLS, FLNC,
Relevant Chartbook Pages: 14, 18, 30, 38
Rates Pre-Eased, Fed Cut Transmission to Economy Likely Muted
A declining 2‑year Treasury signals the market has pre-priced the path of policy easing, meaning the incremental boost from the eventual Fed cuts to financial conditions is smaller than usual. With long-end yields sticky from higher term premia tied to deficits and issuance, many borrowing costs tied to the 10‑year—like mortgages—see limited relief, perhaps blunting rate-sensitive industrial and materials demand used in home construction.
Why equity investors should care: If the long end resists falling, rate cuts may not reflate construction, housing-adjacent demand, or long-duration projects as in prior cycles, favoring firms less reliant on long-term financing
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Until next week,
