This Week’s Essential Real Asset Reading
Trade and Tariff Reading
US Court of International Trade Opinion: It looks dull, but give it a chance. The Background Section and the Discussion Section make for very educational reading. I suggest having Perplexity open while reading to look up the text of various bills referenced as you go.
Trade Under Blockade - Navigating A Global Trade War: A very timely report that makes for good reading in conjunction with the court ruling. This piece outlines what seems to be a better approach to trade, and calls for Congress to reclaim responsibility for tariffs.
Metals and Mining Reading
IEA Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025: Highlights the increasing concentration of refining for critical minerals, especially in China and Indonesia. Despite new mining projects, the supply chains for these minerals remain heavily reliant on a few major suppliers. The story remains unchanged from last year, the year before, and so on. The market value of key energy minerals is projected to grow significantly; however, risks associated with supply concentration continue to pose challenges. Cover-to-cover reading is not necessary; if you scroll through and read the chart titles, you will get all the substance.
Diamond Mining Industry Cracks Under Pressure: The first mine I ever invested in was a Diamond Mine. it was a losing bet, but I learned a lot. Sad to see the industry falling apart, but it was never a good fit for public markets.
Assessing the Policy Ecosystems and Scaling Pathways of Direct Lithium Extraction: This report explores the pros and cons of Direct Lithium Extraction (DLE) and the policies that affect its development in various countries. It highlights the potential for DLE to significantly increase lithium production, with expectations that it could account for half of lithium brine production by 2030. The authors provide policy recommendations to support DLE technologies and include updated information on global pilot projects.
Energy Reading
Can Trump Expediate A Nuclear Renaissance?: President Trump signed four executive orders to boost the U.S. nuclear industry, aiming for more efficient licensing and a stronger domestic supply chain. While these orders support nuclear energy's growth, they also highlight challenges, including staffing needs and regulatory reforms at the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Achieving the goal of 400 GW of nuclear capacity by 2050 requires a comprehensive strategy beyond just these executive actions.
The Two Achilles Heels of Complex Systems: The electric grid is an incredibly complex system that faces increasing vulnerability as renewable energy sources like wind and solar are added. This complexity can lead to major failures, such as widespread blackouts, especially when older infrastructure struggles to keep up. As energy costs rise and resources dwindle, maintaining a stable electricity supply will become more challenging, potentially leading to intermittent power for many.
Technical Research Notes
At Massif Capital, we read extensively and take detailed notes. The notes typically form the basis of future investment write-ups, but often, we find the notes come together to create something less than an investment idea, but more than bullet points that should sit, unread and uncollated, in our notebook (we use Obsidian for notes).
For lack of anything better to call them, these Technical Research Notes are even more wonkish than our usual output, and YES, our ideal reader is a wonkish investment obsessive.
We shared two technical notes this week on our Twitter account:
1) Thacker Pass vs. Rhyolite Ridge: A review of the differences between the geology of two lithium deposits in Nevada. This note is helpful for anyone investing in North American Lithium, as these two deposits are often viewed as similar but are, in fact, quite different.
2) Uncertainty vs. Unpredictability: Donald Trump is unpredictable, and markets are highly uncertain; the combination creates a challenging investment environment. In this note, we aim to distinguish between these two concepts and outline how portfolio managers should address the differences.