Another Election, Another Non-Revolution

In this thematic report, we analyze the implications of the 2024 U.S. presidential election for real asset investors, focusing on the potential outcomes of a second term for former President Trump and a potential administration led by Kamala Harris. The report delves into the broader economic, regulatory, and financial considerations that real asset investors should evaluate as they prepare for the election’s impact on the economy and sector-specific investments.

Key Highlights:

1. Minimal Policy Change Likely: Regardless of the election outcome, policy continuity is expected, with limited dramatic shifts unless one party gains complete control of Congress.

2. Energy & Real Assets Impact: A Trump administration would favor deregulation of oil and gas, while a Harris administration would emphasize clean energy and infrastructure investments.

3. Tax Policy Differences: Trump may extend the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) and reduce corporate taxes, while Harris could raise taxes on corporations, impacting capital-intensive sectors. The most likely outcome is something between the two candidates’ positions.

4. Tariff Uncertainty: Trump may reintroduce aggressive tariffs, especially on China, creating potential volatility in metals and industrial sectors; Harris is expected to maintain a more stable trade approach.

5. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA): Key IRA investments, particularly in clean energy, are likely to persist regardless of administration, though Trump could roll back some EV-related subsidies.

Conclusion: Investors in real assets should not expect a political revolution regardless of the election outcome. Structural forces such as fiscal deficits, regulatory complexities, and global trade issues will likely continue to dominate market dynamics, and continuity in policy is more probable than drastic shifts. Investors are advised to closely monitor taxation, trade, and regulation developments, as these will have varying impacts across the real asset ecosystem.